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The polls are open for parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys indicating that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again emerge victorious, though analysts suggest the party is unlikely of being part of the next government.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

The PVV, which previously achieved a shock first-place finish and established a four-party right-leaning government that lasted barely a year, is currently marginally ahead in the polls and is projected to win between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-seat parliament.

However, PVV's support has dipped since the previous election, when it won 37 seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, and who triggered the fall of the previous government in the summer amid a dispute concerning his radical immigration proposals.

Major Parties and Forecasts

At the end of a election period focused on issues such as immigration, medical expenses, and the country's severe housing crisis, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, projected to win between 22 and 26 parliamentary seats.

Also performing well is the centrist D66, predicted to boost its representation by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the PVV, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all forecast to lose seats, with some experiencing significant losses.

Electoral System and Fragmentation

In the proportional Dutch system, gaining just less than one percent of the vote yields a party a seat in parliament. Among the 27 parties contesting the election – including parties for the over-50s, youth parties, for animals, basic income advocates, and for sport – as many as 16 could enter parliament.

This significant fragmentation ensures that no one party is expected to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by multi-party governments – typically composed of four parties in the last few administrations – for over 100 years.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "the democratic process would end" in the country if the his party becomes the largest party yet is excluded from government. However, opponents and experts argue that first place does not assure government participation and that any governing alliance with a majority is democratically valid.

While the final outcome is hard to predict and government negotiations could take months, political observers indicate that following the most extreme government in recent memory, the future government is expected to be a broad-based alliance led by either the moderate left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, including those in the Madurodam model village in the capital and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, opened at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will close at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate exit poll is anticipated shortly after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an official negotiator will test potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the coming term and must face a confidence vote in the house before taking office.